U.S. stocks have come a long way. February last year turned out to be a major low (black arrow in Charts 1/2/3/4), and after that the November 8 presidential election last year. Performance is not uniform, of course. Some are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 23, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 362.5k, up 122.5k. FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting were released Wednesday. Post-statement, futures priced in 83 percent odds of a 25-basis-point hike … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the May 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Support at 51-plus was defended yet again on May 18. At the same time, bulls … Continued
U.S. financials are acting lethargic but they have so far managed to cling on to potentially crucial support. Post-presidential election last November, a fire was lit under U.S. financials. Intraday between November 9 and March 2, XLF, the SPDR financial … Continued
U.S. real GDP grew 0.7 percent in 1Q17. This was the weakest quarter since a negative reading three years ago. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts growth snapping back to 4.1 percent in 2Q17. Irrespective of quarterly swings, growth remains … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 240k, up 10.9k. Non-commercials nailed it. In the prior week, they had built net longs to the highest since December 2007, and were rewarded. … Continued
Wednesday’s rout in stocks is a reminder that when stretched too far a rubber band will snap. And when that happens, it will do so with plenty of energy. The S&P 500 large cap index has not had a one-percent … Continued
The S&P 500 large cap index was flat in March. Foreigners only purchased $876 million worth of U.S. stocks in that month. Of late, they have been more of a tailwind than a headwind. The 12-month rolling total of foreign … Continued
U.S. households have experienced steady growth for two and a half years, but also lag vis a vis growth in several other metrics. Steep rise in home prices possibly to blame? After going sideways for nearly two years (indigo bi-directional … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.1k, up 49.2k. Back into the nearly six-month range … or near range support, to be precise. Since the election last November, 10-year yields … Continued