The equity rally that began on February 11th has brought bad news to the shorts. Obviously. They have two choices: (1) stay short, which means holding a losing trade, or (2) cover, which will add more fuel to the rally, … Continued
U.S. stocks look vulnerable here. The only question is that of duration and magnitude. Here is why. Off the February 11th intra-day low through the April 1st high, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied nearly 15 percent (Chart 1). … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting were released this week, and there was nothing substantially new. That said, maybe because FOMC … Continued
Oil bulls must have breathed a heavy sigh of relief on Tuesday as crucial support held. But would the U.S. dollar poop the crude party? On its way to collapsing 76 percent since June 2014 through the February 11th low, … Continued
The Fed’s dual mandate currently is a source of ammo for both hawks and doves within the FOMC. Would it always remain this way? Core PCE inflation has been ticking up a bit of late, but still below the Fed’s … Continued
Spot gold is at a critical juncture. Since the metal troughed on December 3rd last year through the March 11th high, it rallied 23 percent. Even before that high, gold had been in a sideways pattern since it spiked 4.1 … Continued
The price-to-earnings ratio is probably the most commonly used tool in equity valuation. Within that, all too often, forward earnings are used. Trailing earnings are seldom employed. In and of itself, in a normal cycle, there is nothing wrong with … Continued
Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January. From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The back and forth between the two camps within the FOMC continues. Last week, several members used public forums to express hawkish opinion … Continued
NYSE margin debt fell $11.9 billion month-over-month in February to $435.8 billion. This was the 10th month since the $507.2-billion peak last April. Margin debt has dropped 14 percent since that peak (Chart 1). For some historical perspective, in 2000 … Continued