U.S. consumer spending, accounting for >2/3rds of economy, key to growth Over last eight years, bank deposits have grown 80 percent But interest income suppressed due to ZIRP Do consumers always benefit from low interest rates? At first glance, that … Continued
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY) made an all-time high of 77.89 toward the end of April, and has more or less traded sideways in the past three months – closing Monday at 76.52. This ETF is an important one … Continued
U.S. personal incomes grow in April, but consumers stash away cash In recent months/quarters, inventories have been growing faster than orders ISM Manufacturing shows small improvement in order-inventory mismatch in May The importance of U.S. consumers cannot be stressed enough … Continued
The PowerShares QQQ (110.05), the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100, seems to want to go lower, at least near-term. When the Qs broke out of 104-plus in February, it quickly added nearly four percent, rallying seven-plus percent for the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 26, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on what the consensus was expecting, U.S. economic data this week were split down the middle, with maybe a … Continued
Buy-the-dippers have been a roadblock to shorts’ success. It is probably not an exaggeration to say that the prevailing buy-the-dip mentality in U.S. equities has done to this bull market what oxygen does to a fire. When O is present, … Continued
So far this week, both bulls and bears can claim victory Watch out when VIX breaks out of downward sloping Oct 14 trendline Bulls have ball and could prove costly if they fumble; SPX at crucial technical level Bulls = … Continued
2nd straight M/M rise in orders for U.S. business capX proxy in April For several months beginning June, hurdle rate quite high for Y/Y growth Six years into expansion, ZIRP probably not confidence booster among CEOs Phew! A sigh of … Continued
Sales of U.S. new homes came in better than expected in April, up 6.8 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 517,000. Monthly numbers tend to be volatile. The 12-month rolling total was 5.66 million in the month … Continued
IWM breaks out of 11-month range early Feb, but momentum slipping; loses Oct 14 trendline Short interest building from low level; large specs adding to net shorts in recent weeks Credit call spread to take advantage of probable sideways/down move … Continued