Equities are choppy. The S&P 500 large cap index (2099.68) is essentially flat for the week. Participation is thin. Volume is anemic. Fresh on the heels of last week’s breakouts, indices are trying to build on those gains. But conviction … Continued
U.S. household formation surges 1.8mn in four months to December Homebuilder sentiment drops to four-month low in Dec, but stays elevated ITB priced for reversal in years-long trend of renting versus owning – not a base case There are good … Continued
Amidst deteriorating U.S. earnings picture and geopolitical uncertainty, stocks resilient Major indices break out, but how much buying power did bulls expend? Breakouts deserve respect, unless they are proven false Are U.S. equities trying to tell us something? Almost out … Continued
Bull markets need fuel for continued push higher. Money can leave other asset classes, such as bonds, and into stocks. Or, they can come out of, let us say, money-market funds into stocks. Foreigners can raise net purchases of U.S. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 10 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield tacked on another seven basis points for the week. Daily indicators are now grossly overbought. It is also right at … Continued
Retail sales soft in Jan – first back-to-back m/m drop since mid-12 Consumers not quite ready to do away with savings from low gas price XLY, RTH break out, betting consumers will end up spending gas windfall U.S. retail sales … Continued
Jan pickup in U.S. average hourly wages after Dec drop welcome relief Nevertheless, NFIB members’ comp plans tumble big time in January Loss of high-paying oil jobs will put downward pressure on wages One of the reasons January’s employment report … Continued
Sideways movement in margin debt a sign investors’ risk appetite waning? 35-year correlation between stocks and margin debt of 0.95, 2014 was only 0.28 In 2000 and 2007, peak in margin debt preceded peak in C&I loans by one-plus year … Continued
BLS’ January oil-and-gas-extraction data gives false sense of security Challenger survey shows 20k energy job-cuts in Jan, more than in all of 2014 Boom bust normal in U.S. oil patch, but shale boom of last five years like no other … Continued
Growth rate of U.S. exports decelerating since 2Q14 At north of 13 percent, exports’ share of GDP remains very high Surging $ no good news for exports; some signs of fatigue, but buck’s momentum intact The advance estimate of real … Continued