Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 30, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 31k, up 24.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield cannot break the logjam. Since bottoming on March 9th at 0.40 percent, rates have pretty much been … Continued
Small-caps and large-caps went their own separate ways for a while, with the Russell 2000 peaking as far back as August 2018 and the S&P 500 in February this year. Since the trough this March, they have been on the … Continued
Bulls are not ready to give up just yet. At the end of last week, bears had a decent opening, as subtle technical weakness developed on major US equity indices. Before this could morph into something serious, bulls put their … Continued
Bulls just wasted a huge opportunity to squeeze non-commercial shorts in e-mini futures. This is coming at a time when the Fed’s balance sheet is no longer growing at a breakneck pace, which stocks cherished earlier. Longs probably wasted a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 23, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 6.5k, up 17.4k. The Federal Reserve continued to reduce its assets this week. Since rising to a record $7.17 trillion two weeks ago, the … Continued
Once again, bulls were denied at 1450s on the Russell 2000 (1390). They have had massive gains since the March low, even as earnings estimates continue lower. A test of 1330s is the path of least resistance, followed by 1250s. … Continued
The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the global economy ferociously the past several months, although several data points showed improvement in May, some of them substantially. US retail sales was one of them. Persistently elevated home prices must be helping consumer sentiment. … Continued
In the last few weeks, money has moved out of money-market funds which ballooned to just under $5 trillion, but not into stocks. Equity bulls are hoping the so-called cash-on-the-sidelines will find a home in stocks. The problem is, major … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 16, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 10.9k, down 13.1k. Foreigners are aggressively getting out of the US sovereign bond market. In March and April, they sold $475.6 billion in Treasury … Continued
After a massive rally in the past three months, the Russell 2000 is tracing out a consolidation pattern. Investor optimism remains very high. For continuation of the uptrend, money-market funds likely hold the key. Barring their cooperation, bulls will have … Continued