Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 31, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 238.9k, up 13.8k. Bond bears (on price) defended the 50-day moving average on the 10-year treasury rate. It tagged 3.17 percent on May 9 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 24, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 225.1k, up 65k. May has one session to go before the month is over. The 10-year treasury yield is on course for a potentially … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 17, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 160.1k, up 74.1k. FOMC minutes for the May 3-4 meeting will be out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 50 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 10, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 86k, down 61.6k. It is probable the 10-year treasury yield made an important high this week. Rates touched 3.17 percent intraday Monday before reversing … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 3, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 147.5k, up 29.7k. “Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we are moving expeditiously to bring it … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield more than doubled in five months, completing a measured-move target of an inverse-head-and-shoulders breakout in early January. This is coming at a time when the Fed has signaled it will use both conventional and unconventional tools … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.8k, down 214.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s third, and five more remain after this. In the March meeting, … Continued
An oversold reflex rally is due in major US indices. This week, major tech outfits report their March quarter. This could act as a catalyst. If post-earnings reaction instead acts as a headwind, the FOMC meets on May 3-4. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 332.3k, up 32.4k. A 50-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate is pretty much sealed in the May 3-4 meeting. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 299.9k, down 62.9k. That the 10-year treasury yield has gone parabolic in recent weeks is no exaggeration. As recently as March 1, rates tagged … Continued