“Manufacturing and net exports have continued to be hard hit by slow global growth and the significant appreciation of the dollar since 2014… Low oil prices have also resulted in large-scale layoffs in the energy sector and adverse spillovers to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 22, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: This could not get any funnier. A week after the FOMC statement, and later Janet Yellen, Fed chair, shifted message from hawkish to … Continued
U.S. households are flush with cash – if we look at their bank deposits. The question is, does this represent dry powder for stocks? Households’ currency and deposits including money market fund shares totaled $10.7 trillion in 4Q15, having increased … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 15, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Major central banks are in a race as to who can ‘shock and awe’ the markets the most. On January 29th, Haruhiko Kuroda, … Continued
Three months. That is all it took for the Fed to do a 360. In the middle of last December, the fed funds rate was raised for the first time in nine years – to still-zero-bound 37 basis points. The … Continued
Back in the middle of December, when the Fed hiked rates for the first time in nine years, the FOMC’s dot plot optimistically forecasted four quarter-point hikes this year. On December 16th – the day the FOMC statement came out … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 8, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC meets next week, and it is a given. They will stand pat on interest rate, but the dot plot likely sees … Continued
CNBC.com ran an interesting story last Thursday (March 3rd) on resurging home flipping in the U.S. Turns out, according to RealtyTrac, nearly 180,000 family homes and condos were flipped in 2015, making up 5.5 percent of all sales. This was … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 1, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Unbelievable! The Japanese government is getting paid to borrow money for a decade. For the first time ever, Japan sells 10-year bonds at … Continued
NYSE margin debt continues to deflate. Right before the 2008/2009 bear market ended, margin debt shrunk to $173.3 billion in February 2009. It then gradually rose. The previous high of $381.4 billion in July 2007 was surpassed in April 2013 … Continued