The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 10. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: 10-year yields shed another 13 basis points in the week. Nonetheless, note owners continued to sell near 2.04 percent. And these traders, in agreement, … Continued
U.S. bond market and Fed lock horns as relates to trajectory of short rates Fed continues to drop hints it is ready to lift rates off near-zero levels Should that come to pass, it has potential to help vigilantes’ case … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 3. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: They continued to add to net shorts, and it has so far backfired. Post-jobs report Friday, the 10-year yield shot up 13 basis points. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 24 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials are doing it again. They increased net shorts by 63 percent in the latest reporting period. Turns out they picked a wrong … Continued
Contrary message from U.S. dollar and bonds as to prospects for interest-rate hike by Fed Latest Humphrey-Hawkins testimony shows Chair Janet Yellen leaning dovish Hedge funds are neck-deep in bullish dollar bets, expecting higher rates Currency and bond markets are … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 17 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield had been trending down within a channel since it peaked on December 30, 2013 at three percent. Early this year, … Continued
Nice pickup in U.S. C&I loans in recent months, but… From time QE started, banks’ excess reserves at Fed have quadrupled Odds of these reserves making way into economy essentially nil as loan demand weak In recent months, there has … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 10 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield tacked on another seven basis points for the week. Daily indicators are now grossly overbought. It is also right at … Continued
Sideways movement in margin debt a sign investors’ risk appetite waning? 35-year correlation between stocks and margin debt of 0.95, 2014 was only 0.28 In 2000 and 2007, peak in margin debt preceded peak in C&I loans by one-plus year … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 3 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield has risen from 1.65 to 1.94 in five sessions. But it also dropped 52 basis points in January, and that … Continued