The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued
What exactly would Fed officials be focused on when they decide to hike – or not – rates? It is a fair question given the amount of variance in their message. On Tuesday evening, John Williams, president of the San … Continued
By last Tuesday, non-commercials were net long 22,490 contracts in 10-year note futures, having reversed the bearish bet they had in the prior four weeks (Chart 1). Turns out it was the right thing to do. By Tuesday, TLT, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
Today is jobs day. At 8:30 later this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the report card for September. A monthly ritual that markets more often than not await with abated breath. Particularly so this time around as the … Continued
“Most of my colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year and to continue boosting short-term rates at a gradual pace thereafter as the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, post-FOMC decision not to hike, stocks fell. They had rallied strongly into the meeting, and were probably set to drop either … Continued
Relatively speaking, U.S. housing is going strong, with price being the major risk. Monthly data tend to be volatile. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate in August, sales of existing homes dropped 4.8 percent month-over-month to 5.31 million units, even … Continued
Last week when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met, market participants were divided as to whether or not the Fed would raise rates. Most economists expected a hike, as did the short end of the yield curve; two-year Treasury … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: When the Fed finally raises rates – whenever that is – ahead of that move should we now pay attention to fed funds … Continued