There is probably no other price as important as the price of money – that is, interest rates. They are what grease the wheels of an economy. Simplistically, when rates are high, people are incentivized to save more. When they … Continued
Heard yesterday on Bloomberg Radio that U.S. consumption of boats and RVs is through the roof; RV sales are back to pre-Great Recession days, even as sales of boats are below that watermark but remain very healthy. These items tend … Continued
Short interest continues to inch up. By June-end, Nasdaq’s went up 0.6 percent period-over-period to 8.9bn – highest since end-September 2008 – and NYSE’s edged up 0.7 percent p/p to 14.6bn. What is going on in the Naz in particular … Continued
The U.S. jobs market seems to be on the mend. Or so it seems. June produced the fifth consecutive month of 200k-plus non-farm jobs, for a monthly average of 248k. The last time the economy churned out five consecutive months … Continued
Debt can be both a boon and a bane. Used properly, it can be a very useful tool – be it to an individual, a business, or a government. Too much of it at the same time can unleash destructive … Continued
The title of the accompanying chart says it all. Despite all the talk behind the ongoing de-leveraging, facts point us to a different reality. Compared to 2007, the outstanding U.S. bond market debt is higher, not lower – $40.4tn in … Continued
The euro so far is trading exactly as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi did not disappoint. Yesterday, the refi rate (main lending rate) was cut to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent and the deposit rate to negative 0.1 percent from … Continued
Sales of new homes are struggling to maintain their earlier momentum. The three-month moving average flat-lined for nearly a year before peaking at 448k (SAAR) in January this year. Those for sale (supply) has been gradually inching up as well … Continued
In discussing the dynamics behind the U.S. bond market early this week, an important variable got left out. The chart below plots the budget situation of the U.S. government against issuance by the Treasury of notes and bonds. This gives … Continued
As 2014 began, growth expectations were very high for the U.S. economy. In fact, every year since the recession ended mid-2009, economists’ GDP forecasts have been on the optimistic side, only to be progressively cut back as the year progresses. … Continued