U.S. consumer confidence has surged since July 2014 Decent inverse correlation between gas price and consumer sentiment No correlation between personal consumption expenditures and consumer sentiment Consumer confidence is soaring in the U.S. Since July 2014, the Thomson Reuters/University of … Continued
10-yr Treasury yield rises, diverging from loads of weaker-than-expected macro data recently There is no shortage of reason to argue for lower yield, even so sentiment can get extended Levels bond bulls will be drawn to if they believe rates … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 27 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Can we say squeeze? Since the end of December, net shorts have dropped 59 percent, even as the 10-year yield has collapsed 50 … Continued
Disinflationary/deflationary pressures intensifying globally Fed favorite core PCE inflation persistently under two percent despite three QE’s Bonds do not see inflation as far as eye can see, signal slowdown in activity; stocks continue merry way Monday morning, investors will learn … Continued
Setback in orders for business-capex proxy; down four consecutive months Inventory-to-order ratios, nowhere near previous peaks, trending higher Zero-bound suppressed rates probably impacting incentive to borrow The much-anticipated capex boom in the U.S. will just have to wait a while … Continued
As FOMC meets, markets will be looking for clues on rate-hike timing Consensus, which had been betting on mid-year hike, vacillating of late Lower-than-expected inflation, strong dollar excuses for Fed not to move The Federal Open Market Committee begins its … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 20 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. Dollar index, gold and euro jump out the most. 10-year note: It seems non-commercials’ patience is wearing thin. On top of that, this has not … Continued
As world’s largest debtor and one running deficit, U.S. needs constant demand for Treasurys Recycling of petrodollars has been reliable source of demand for U.S. federal debt So far, drop in price of crude has not adversely impacted this demand … Continued
Major U.S. banks’ 4Q14 earnings results big disappointment Release of reserves built up during crisis years have been big tailwind Financials’ path of least resistance down medium-term, though oversold near-term Investors were genuinely disappointed last week as all four major … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 13 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. Dollar index and E-mini S&P 500 are noticeable. 10-year note: Did non-commercials get squeezed a little this week? By Tuesday, the 10-year yield had dropped … Continued