Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 179.2k, down 55.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.83 percent) was rejected at 1.95-1.97 percent in both November and December. The drop since found support … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 31, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 234.8k, down 33.9k. Last week, the 10-year T-yield (1.81 percent) essentially … Continued
Last year was a bumper year for stocks. Conditions are extended, sentiment effusive. History has taught us over and over again unwinding can be painful. As soon as 2020 began, US stocks picked up where they left off 2019. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 24, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 268.7k, up 23.3k. Last Tuesday’s intraday high of 1.95 percent was yet … Continued
Major US equity indices continue to attract bids and are trading at fresh highs. Greed rules, with several metrics at nosebleed levels. In a seasonally favorable period, crazy can get crazier – at least that is what bulls hope. How … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 245.3k, up 66.4k. Bond bears (on price) keep hammering on a potentially crucial level. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.92 percent) dropped to 1.43 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 178.9k, down 43k. As expected, the Fed stood pat. This week’s FOMC meeting – the year’s eighth and last – left the fed funds … Continued
The Russell 2000 has broken out. There are many reasons to doubt the breakout – ranging from elevated valuations to falling profit estimates to several soft economic data points. But as long as the breakout remains intact, bulls deserve the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets. It is this year’s eighth and last meeting. Markets do not expect the Fed to move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 26, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 145.7k, down 37.8k. In the last nine weeks, the Federal Reserve’s SOMA (System … Continued