Small-caps broke out last week. This comes amidst earnings deceleration and softening in several macro data. If things turn up as they did in early 2016, bulls would have been vindicated. Their conviction level will be put to test by … Continued
Markets have been in dichotomy, with large-caps leading and small-caps lagging. Bulls were hoping the former would pull the latter along. But risks are rising things will evolve the opposite way. It is early, but subtle signs of fatigue are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion. … Continued
Yet another week and yet another record in the S&P 500, although the Russell 2000 is not in confirmation. Sentiment is complacent, some metrics frothy. But it can get frothier. This also means buying protection is cheap. The US economy … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76. Since that peak … Continued
With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better. In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower. Non-commercials are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent. Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied strongly in the past month. Investors Intelligence bulls expanded eight percentage points in the last three weeks. In the options market, investors are taking off protection they bought earlier. Greed has replaced fear. Unwinding is the … Continued
US Manufacturing has contracted for three months now. Markets are not a least bit bothered. They are hoping the Fed’s three rate cuts this year would boost a decelerating economy. In the futures market, non-commercials are betting with record net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 116.1k, up 31.7k. As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week. This was a third straight cut … Continued