The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point hike is expected, so is a shift to a dovish bias. Watch out if stocks, beaten up the past two and a half months, cannot rally on this, and/or shorts quickly show up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 393.8k, up 100.6k. Next week – on 18-19 – the FOMC meets. This is the last meeting this year. A 25-basis-point raise is expected, … Continued
Bulls and bears continue to show up at 2600 and 2800 respectively. The S&P 500 just tested support – successfully. Odds favor a rally here. There is dry powder in money-market funds, even as fear reflected in the options market … Continued
The 10-year T-yield dropped from 3.24 percent a month ago to last Thursday’s intraday low of 2.83 percent. The daily chart is grossly oversold. A rally looks imminent near term, meaning TLT is headed lower. US average hourly earnings for … Continued
The S&P 500 hurriedly jumped 6.4 percent in seven sessions. Impatient bulls essentially handed out shorts an opportunity to once again show up at 2800. The risk is the downside, but it is likely 2800-2600 remains intact in the next … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 284.2k, down 83k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, moved markets on Wednesday. A whole host of asset classes reacted to his Economic Club of New … Continued
In a session the S&P 500 rallied 2.3 percent, VIX held up better on Wednesday. It is probably due to the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks over the weekend in Argentina. Should, come Monday, stocks initially get roiled it is … Continued
The S&P 500 sits at/near October lows. How the bull-bear duel resolves in the next few sessions will decide the path of least resistance in this seasonally favorable period. Options and investor sentiment do not reflect panic. If stocks rally … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 333.2k, down 206k. On October 5, the 10-year rate (3.07 percent) began retreating after touching 3.25 percent – the highest since May 2011. Thursday … Continued
For a change, the VIX-to-VXV ratio has managed to stay overbought longer than what has normally been the case. Signal or noise? We need more time before we have a definitive answer. If it is the signal, equity bulls in … Continued