“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” The above remark is often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, although some dispute it. Regardless who said it, it is a nice quote. More … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 8, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC meets next week, and it is a given. They will stand pat on interest rate, but the dot plot likely sees … Continued
U.S. stocks have come a long way since February 11th. Intra-day, off that low through last Friday’s high, here is how much major U.S. indices have rallied: Dow Industrials, 10.1 percent; S&P 500 large cap index (Chart 1), 11 percent; … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 1, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Unbelievable! The Japanese government is getting paid to borrow money for a decade. For the first time ever, Japan sells 10-year bonds at … Continued
U.S. small-caps are rallying. Rallying hard. Harder than several of their peers. Since the intra-day low on February 11th, the Russell 2000 small cap index is up just north of 14 percent, also breaking out of 1035. This level approximates … Continued
QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, is showing signs of fatigue. Off the February 11th low through last Friday’s intra-day high, the ETF rallied nearly 10 percent in 11 sessions (Chart 1). Yes, this preceded a 17-percent drop since December … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour. Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP). This was totally … Continued
In the prior reporting period (Jan 15-29), short interest on XLE, the SPDR Energy ETF, collapsed just north of 17 percent to 40.7 million (Chart 1). During the period, the ETF dropped 8.1 percent through the January 20th intra-day low, … Continued
To say that SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, has been volatile in recent weeks is an understatement. Intra-day, between the December 29th high and the January 20th low, the ETF shed nearly 13 percent… in 15 sessions. Like that. … Continued
U.S. stocks began 2016 on the wrong foot. That is an understatement. In fact, major indices peaked intra-day on December 29th (2015). Using that high, the S&P 500 large cap index through the intra-day low on January 20th lost 13 … Continued