The Russell 2000 has a parabolic look to it. Post-presidential election and vaccine news, investors are piling into the index. On Tuesday, the index had opened up a 31.1-percent gap with its 200-day – the most ever. Amidst this, Wednesday … Continued
There is an air of invincibility among equity bulls. A contrarian-minded investor may find this uncomfortably lop-sided, but nothing says it cannot continue in a seasonally favorable period. The recent jump in investor sentiment is yet to translate into consumer … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 1, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 25.7k, down 89.2k. Once again, the 10-year Treasury yield (0.97 percent) is back at testing the one percent level. Friday, rates rose as high … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 24, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 115k, down 37.3k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.84 percent) has come under … Continued
After the sharp contraction in economic activity in the early months this year, inventories are running low. Growth gets a tailwind as they get rebuilt. There is tight correlation between economic growth and corporate profits. Stocks are anticipating this. Home … Continued
Small-caps and tech continue to diverge. Post-vaccine news, longs are gravitating toward the former and leaving the latter. Amidst this, signs of fatigue are also showing up on the S&P 500, while VIX acts like it wants to rally. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 17, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 152.3k, up 57.7k. Both the 50- and 200-day moving averages closed Thursday at 0.77 percent. The former is rising and the latter dropping. Friday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 10, 2020 (data published this Monday instead of last Friday due to Veterans Day holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 94.6k, up 100.3k. The last time the 10-year Treasury yield (0.91 … Continued
Easy money is here to stay. That was pretty much the message Chair Powell delivered this week. The US economy is up to the gills in leverage. A sustained rise in interest rates will hurt. The Fed will try to … Continued
US corporations continue to aggressively issue debt in the bond market. Even amidst this supply, demand remains good. Both LQD and HYG are near their record highs. Besides the Fed essentially acting as a backstop, corporate boards are probably also … Continued