VIX this week broke two-month support, opening the door to a test of support at 11-12. Meanwhile, the volatility curve – in contango – is approaching a level that in the past coincided with a peak in stocks. With one … Continued
Investors increasingly are hiding in large-caps. The S&P 500 large cap index Monday reached a new all-time high, while the S&P 600 small cap index closed Tuesday 16 percent off its all-time high from last August. Stocks are rallying but … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 281.1k, down 121.9k. Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October through the intraday low seven sessions ago of 1.98 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield … Continued
NYSE and Nasdaq short interest is up a decent amount since end-April. Nasdaq’s in particular is the highest since March 2016. The index rallied after bottoming early this month. At least until the middle of the month, shorts were staying … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied to a new high last week. Since January last year, it has more or less treaded water, although there have been higher highs. Several potential sources of tailwind are missing in action. Corporate buybacks are the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from record highs. They have done so without much help from foreigners and margin debt. Bulls deserve kudos, but then again, how long can this go on? US indices are within … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. No change in expected. But in the remaining four scheduled meetings, markets have priced in at least two cuts. The Fed has a juggling act in hand. The unemployment rate is near a six-decade low, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls. There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued