An argument can be made that spot VIX is in the middle of a saucer formation – also known as a rounding bottom. Chart 1 shows prior two such formations – one in the ‘90s and the other in the … Continued
It has been a while since U.S. small-caps reached a new high (arrow in Chart 1). The Russell 2000 small cap index (1209.74) peaked in June last year at 1296. Small-caps have massively underperformed large-caps. Both the S&P 500 large … Continued
Have foreigners ceased to be a factor in the market for both U.S. equities and treasury securities? Makes you wonder looking at the Treasury International Capital System data. May’s numbers were released this Monday, and there was not much change … Continued
The last time spot VIX closed under 13 for three consecutive sessions was in early August last year. In fact, VIX back then stayed sub-13 for four straight sessions ended August 3rd, and registered three more sub-13 readings by August … Continued
After a 13-session, heady rally off June 27th lows, U.S. stocks are beginning to reek of complacency. The question is, is it now time to turn contrarian or things might stay complacent for a little while longer? Take put-to-call ratios. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF, was punished for a 3.6-percent drop this week. This followed a parabolic rally, particularly after … Continued
Next week’s economic calendar is housing-heavy. Monday brings the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index for July, Tuesday housing starts for June, and Thursday existing home sales for June. Builder sentiment remained stuck at 58 for four months through May, before … Continued
Table 1 was posted in last Tuesday’s blog. It is apropos to be discussing it again. The table tallies instances of rallies of five percent or above on the S&P 500 over four sessions. Going back six years, there have … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued
Are U.S. sovereign bonds in a blow-off phase? Tough to say, but they have had quite a rally. Yields on both 30-year bonds and 10-year notes this week made new all-time lows. Post-Brexit, demand for long bonds from major countries, … Continued