Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 15, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 14.8k, up 5.3k. The Fed Wednesday said rates will stay zero-bound through the end of 2023. The fed funds rate in March was lowered … Continued
On a 12-month basis, foreigners’ purchases of US equities dropped slightly in July, with June the highest since April 2010. If this represents a turn in their sentiment, this will have come at a time when buybacks are no longer … Continued
S&P 500 buybacks declined substantially in the second quarter. The trend is likely to persist. Historically, the S&P 500 and buybacks move in tandem. The two have diverged big time in the current quarter. As the hitherto tailwind turns into … Continued
The recent selloff in equities has come at a time of elevated Fed balance sheet, stabilizing earnings estimates and improving macro data. Either stocks believe these positives are not lasting or they are falling under their own weight, as they … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 8, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 9.5k, up 23k. The FOMC meets this week. After the Tuesday-Wednesday meeting, two more remain this year – November 4-5 and December 15-16. As … Continued
Sentiment indicators are beginning to come in from elevated levels. This both preceded and followed the latest three-day selloff in stocks. Wednesday, bulls tried to stem the damage by buying. Immediately ahead, VIX is the one to watch. Last week, … Continued
Bears are putting foot down. On both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, bulls last week were unable to break through multi-year resistance, even as the Nasdaq 100 finished right on rising-channel support from March. All this followed massive gains … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 1, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 13.5k, up 85.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.72 percent) remains rangebound between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. There was some excitement among bond bears … Continued
The same way investor fear was pervasive in March, greed is reflected in several metrics currently. Reversal risks are very high medium- to long-term. Near-term, how VIX behaves in the next several sessions will decide if sentiment gets ever frothier. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 72.3k, down 14.7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.73 percent) is itching to break out of a five-and-a-half-month rectangle between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. … Continued