The S&P 500 closed 2020 with a new high. Momentum was very strong in November and December. In the past, more gains followed in the following year. For that, several things have to fall into place, including how flows, margin … Continued
Some early signs of fatigue are showing up on the Russell 2000, which has more than doubled since March. Conditions are extended. A week ago yesterday, the small cap index was 34.7 percent above its 200-day. Although this in and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued
After persistently remaining elevated for several weeks, investor sentiment is coming under pressure a little. Assuming institutions began distributing, retail would not be able to mop up all the supply. Record margin debt then becomes front and center. Equity bulls … Continued
With investor sentiment elevated and help from the Fed, margin debt and foreigners, major US equity indexes remain near highs. Bulls are positioning for a Santa rally, followed by the onset of 4Q earnings season in the first half next … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 15, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 27.4k, down 1.8k. Covid-19 vaccine or not, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is not wearing rose-colored glasses as far as the US economy is concerned … Continued
Foreigners continue to wax enthusiastic about US equities. For their optimism, they have been rewarded handsomely. Although the Treasury publishes the related data with a lag, foreigners’ behavior is worth a close watch, as prior major peaks have coincided with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 8, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29.2k, up 3.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The two-day meeting ends on Wednesday with a press conference by Chair Jerome Powell. This is … Continued
The Russell 2000 has a parabolic look to it. Post-presidential election and vaccine news, investors are piling into the index. On Tuesday, the index had opened up a 31.1-percent gap with its 200-day – the most ever. Amidst this, Wednesday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 1, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 25.7k, down 89.2k. Once again, the 10-year Treasury yield (0.97 percent) is back at testing the one percent level. Friday, rates rose as high … Continued