The Fed meets this week. It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks. With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 176.4k, down 56.9k. Non-commercials continue to cut back net shorts, which late September last year was at a new record. The 10-year Treasury yield … Continued
Since late December, US stocks have rallied massively. Yet, investor sentiment has not caught up. Reason for bulls to worry or rejoice? The answer may lie in who decisively wins the bull-bear tug of war around 2800 on S&P 500. … Continued
Bonds and stocks diverged for a couple of months before beginning to move hand in hand this month. The former is not buying the enthusiasm shown by the latter. The 10-year T-yield currently sits at decade-old support. A breakdown will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 233.4k, down 619. The rally in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.63 percent) from July 2016, when rates bottomed at 1.34 percent, ended last October … Continued
Corporate buybacks were the savior last year, even as investors took cash out of equities and foreigners reduced exposure to US stocks. The status quo needs to change. Bulls cannot continue betting on continued buyback momentum. On a 12-month rolling … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 26, 2019. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government. After the government reopened, it published one … Continued
US stocks are on fire. The Russell 2000/IWM was essentially unchanged last week, with the index down 0.03 percent and the ETF up 0.06 percent. This followed nine weeks of persistent rally, during which they jumped 34 percent. Conditions are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 19, 2019. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, which has now reopened. The CFTC expects … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 1-15 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Shorts continued to cut back. From the Boxing Day bottom through the high Monday, XLB … Continued