Continued contraction in corporate issuance of high-yield bonds is likely creating a supply-demand imbalance, helping the likes of HYG. Eight months in, 2018 corporate debt issuance continues to shrink. August saw issuance of $98.6 billion, made up of $83.4 billion … Continued
Even though trade tensions particularly between the US and China have heated up, small-caps – supposed beneficiaries of a trade war – have stalled of late. Medium term, downside risks are huge. In the very near term, it is a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 4, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.8k, up 152.9k. Bulls and bears went back and forth this week around the 50-day moving average until Friday when the 10-year rate (2.94 … Continued
For the first time in a while, equity bears may be looking at an opening. Bulls Wednesday defended nearest support on major US equity indices, but breach risks are rising. Kudos to the bulls who this year have withstood many … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index enjoyed a mini-breakout Tuesday, only to find itself right underneath seven-month channel resistance. A breakout would be massive. Could shorts come to longs’ rescue in due course? The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (7570.25) Tuesday rose to yet … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the August 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB ($59.13) mid-August once again successfully tested support at $57. As if anticipating this, shorts … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 21, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.5k, up 2.3k. The 10-year T-yield (2.83 percent) lost five basis points this week. The neckline of a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation has been … Continued
Major US equity indices are at/past late-January highs. Investor sentiment, on the other hand, is nowhere near as giddy. Is this good or bad? The Russell 2000 small cap index (1722.54) just broke out of a two-month pennant. Of major … Continued
QQQ bulls faced channel resistance a month ago, but defended channel support of different duration. They are, however, facing headwinds of waning momentum. The bull-bear tug of war continues on QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust). On July 25, bulls were rejected … Continued