Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the May 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Two weeks ago, XLB (59.33) broke out from a late-January falling trend line, but building … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 16-30 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Since peaking at 64.17 on January 26, XLB (58.49) has persistently made lower highs. A … Continued
Wednesday, the FOMC met. The fed funds rate went up another 25 basis points to between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent. One would think this would drive market action. But looking at a diverse set of assets, technicals played a … Continued
Mediocre demand for Wednesday’s auction of $24 billion in 10-year Treasury notes probably reflects worries over rising deficit spending. In that auction, yields obviously were not attractive enough to entice aggressive buying. Ten-year yields ended the session up eight basis … Continued
Risk happens fast. All of a sudden, no one is buying the dip. Rather, the quest for protection has skyrocketed. In mere six sessions, VIX went from 11.08 to 38.80, closing Monday at 37.32. This was the highest since August … Continued
What if? What if China proceeds to reduce its purchases of Treasury securities? At $1.18 trillion, it is the largest holder. Japan – at $1.08 trillion – is close second. The U.S. Treasury market is $14.2-trillion strong (chart here). On … Continued
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields peaked in September 1981 at 15.8 percent, then dropped all the way to bottom at 1.34 percent in July 2016. Some bull market in bonds! On an absolute basis, the 10-year is still trapped in a … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the December 16-29 (2017) period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Already up 3.2 percent for the month/year, XLB (62.47) stayed with the daily upper … Continued
XLF (SPDR financial sector ETF) has come a long way. This past September, it broke out of major resistance at just north of 25. Back in May 2007, the ETF retreated after hitting 25.11, before dropping all the way to … Continued
Last Wednesday, TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) got rejected at the underside of a broken trend line from March this year. The intraday high of 128.23 in that session was hit well outside the daily upper Bollinger band. … Continued