Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 223.6k, up 44.3k. Bond bulls and bears continue to fight over control of trend-line support from early September when the 10-year Treasury yield (1.84 … Continued
Elevated multiples have not bothered equity bulls. In recent months, the Fed too has come to their aid. Investor optimism is dangerously elevated going into the 4Q19 earnings season. The 4Q19 earnings season kicks off this week. Banks and brokers … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 179.2k, down 55.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.83 percent) was rejected at 1.95-1.97 percent in both November and December. The drop since found support … Continued
Last year was a bumper year for stocks. Conditions are extended, sentiment effusive. History has taught us over and over again unwinding can be painful. As soon as 2020 began, US stocks picked up where they left off 2019. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets. It is this year’s eighth and last meeting. Markets do not expect the Fed to move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 26, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 145.7k, down 37.8k. In the last nine weeks, the Federal Reserve’s SOMA (System … Continued
Markets have been in dichotomy, with large-caps leading and small-caps lagging. Bulls were hoping the former would pull the latter along. But risks are rising things will evolve the opposite way. It is early, but subtle signs of fatigue are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion. … Continued
Yet another week and yet another record in the S&P 500, although the Russell 2000 is not in confirmation. Sentiment is complacent, some metrics frothy. But it can get frothier. This also means buying protection is cheap. The US economy … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76. Since that peak … Continued