The S&P 500 as well as the Nasdaq 100 stalled at 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of their February-March decline, before rallying past the golden ratio. The Russell 2000 achieved that feat last week and immediately came under pressure. If it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 26, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 38.1k, down 55.1k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.65 percent) has essentially gone sideways for nearly three months now. This was at a time when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets. It is this year’s eighth and last meeting. Markets do not expect the Fed to move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.2k, down 47.2k. Where is the bottom? The 10-year Treasury yield (2.14 percent) last Thursday sliced through support at 2.36 percent. This week, it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 684.7k, up 2k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.07 percent) has once again reached a battle zone. The last time these notes yielded just north … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 24, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 153.6k, up 47.3k. FOMC meets next week. The October 31-November 1 meeting is the seventh this year, with the eighth, and final, scheduled for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 17, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 106.3k, down 86.3k. If Politico is to be believed, President Trump is leaning toward Jerome Powell, Fed governor, for the next Federal Reserve chair. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 29, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 283.7k, up 22.5k. Hurricane Harvey may have given the Fed an excuse not to hike come December. At least that is how markets are … Continued
If the past couple of weeks were an indication, bulls and bears are locked in a vicious tug of war over the near- and medium-term direction of crude oil. From the February 11th low to the June 9th high, spot … Continued