The US dollar index, pretty much dancing to its own tune since peaking early this year, likely sits at a crucial level technically. The U.S. economy added stronger-than-expected 222,000 non-farm jobs in June. Friday, the US dollar index pretty much … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 263k, down 39.1k. The speed by which long rates rose the past couple of weeks took many by surprise. Intraday between June 26 and … Continued
Commodities had a nice week last week. After five consecutive weekly losses, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index rallied 4.2 percent last week, but dropped 2.8 percent anyway in June – its sixth straight negative month. Last week’s action is encouraging, but … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 212.1k, down 46.1k. The Fed is all set to hike next week. Futures are pricing in 99.6-percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase. This will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 30, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 258.2k, down 104.3k. “If the tension between the progress on employment and the lack of progress on inflation persists, it may lead me to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.1k, up 49.2k. Back into the nearly six-month range … or near range support, to be precise. Since the election last November, 10-year yields … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 179.9k, down 34.8k. Pre-FOMC decision this week, futures were pricing in 63 percent odds of a 25-basis point hike in June and 60 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 214.6k, up 255.9k. Ten-year Treasury yields did indeed test support-turned-resistance at 2.31 percent this week. In fact, they rose all the way to 2.35 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 55.8k, down 13.9k. Post-FOMC minutes Wednesday, the S&P 500 large cap index reversed hard, shedding 1.1 percent between 2 pm and 3:30 pm. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 7, 2017. 10-year note: The Janet Yellen-led Fed – and the one led by her predecessor Ben Bernanke – believe in the wealth effect. Since the financial crisis, anytime equities came … Continued