Ahead of ECB meeting, euro misery continues Draghi under pressure to deliver news of more stimulus Large speculators look tentative and sitting on massive net shorts When early October, FXE, the euro ETF, was unable to hold on to 126-127, … Continued
Amidst relentless rally, excessively bullish dollar sentiment R between U.S. exports and dollar weak, but continual strength can hurt exports Previously, recession has tagged along with persistent drop in ‘share of U.S. exports in nominal GDP’ Since it bottomed early … Continued
In wake of early September breakout, U.S. dollar in limbo Too soon to say if breakout is reversal or continuation of prior downward trend Sentiment too bullish, reflected in large speculators’ futures position, raising odds of mean reversion The U.S. … Continued
In 12 years ended September 2011, gold surged nearly eight times Momentum reversed and was never recouped even though QE3 was launched late ‘12 Sitting on crucial support; lot depends on if U.S. $ takes break from 12-wk, eight-percent-plus rally … Continued
Encouraging signs of near-term bottom VIX unable to break past 17; several other indicators grossly oversold Medium-term risks remain; SPX, DOW, RUT, NYSE have broken late-2012 trendline The Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite yesterday successfully tested trendline support going … Continued
FXE breaks one more crucial technical support Large speculators’ euro net shorts at 26-mo high, but flattish in recent weeks Market reaction to Draghi’s asset-purchase plans will be a tell regarding euro’s near-term direction Still a wait-and-see on the euro … Continued
Expectations of higher US interest rates and stronger economy acting as tailwind behind resurgent $ Sentiment too bullish, reflected in non-commercials’ near-record net longs in US $ futures Safe bet probably is to wait to take the other side of … Continued
Tick, tick, tick. That is the sound of the clock ticking for the first rate hike by the Fed. It is coming sooner than expected. So it seems. Or, is it? At least that is how the market seems to … Continued
As discussed last week that non-commercial futures traders might just once again be ahead of the curve in anticipating market reaction to Thursday’s ECB decision, they indeed were. By Tuesday (last week), they had raised net shorts in euro futures … Continued
The expected decline in the euro never came. Back on August 11, it looked like the currency was ready for a bounce. Just a bounce, as long-term technicals were only midway through unwinding overbought conditions hence did not call for … Continued