Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 12, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 942.2k, down 17.6k. Minutes for the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are due next Wednesday. Despite repeated demands for lower short rates by President Donald … Continued
Major US equity indices have a rough start to 2022. From their recent highs to Monday’s lows, they have all suffered double-digit percent declines, with small-caps tumbling more than 20 percent. Amidst this rout, both Monday and Tuesday produced potentially … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls. There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.2k, down 16.1k. Kudos to non-commercials for having doggedly remained bearish on 10-year Treasury notes. They reaped a bumper crop this week. In September … Continued
IWM is breaking down, losing one after another support. Amidst this, the daily is grossly oversold. A bounce can happen – or not. This perhaps creates an opportunity for a non-directional trade involving options. Small-caps are taking it on the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 25, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 756.3k, up 71.6k. Markets versus the Fed. Odds of a collision next year continue to rise. Post-FOMC meeting this week, the dot plot kept … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the June 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Monday, XLB (57.83) bounced off the daily lower Bollinger band. The daily chart is oversold. … Continued
Major US equity indices all peaked late January – the S&P 500 large cap index, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq 100 index on the 26th and the Russell 2000 small cap index on the 24th. This was followed by … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index/QQQ could be potentially forming the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. This week’s action could provide further clues. The US economy is one month short of completing nine years of expansion. The recovery has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued