FINRA Margin Debt Inching Closer To May ’18 High, Has Tight Correlation With Small-Caps, Which Are Going Parabolic

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As major US equity indices post record highs, margin debt is inching ever closer to its high from May 2018. In all probability, November will have made a new high in margin debt. Amidst all this risk-on behavior, it is … Continued

Corporate Buybacks Massively Disappoint This Year – Offset By Increase In Foreign Buying Of US Stocks And In Margin Debt

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Company buybacks are having quite a bit of a dry spell. As corporate boards act thrifty this year, it has not had much impact on stocks. The buyback shortfall is being offset by bulled-up foreigners and investor willingness to take … Continued

Margin Debt Grows In Sep – A Down Month – Russell 2000 Breaks Out In Oct; Bulls Will Love If Russell 2000:S&P 500 Breaks Out Next

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

September was a down month, but it turns out the selloff was used as an opportunity to buy. Use of leverage grew last month. This was then followed this month by improved price action in small-caps, which investors tend to … Continued

Opportunity Goes Begging In Tech To Meaningfully Benefit From Short Squeeze

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Tech bulls only benefited in a minor degree from a major squeeze of non-commercials in the futures market. Concurrently, several other buying sources are increasingly acting hesitant. In the week to last Tuesday, non-commercials in Nasdaq 100 index (mini) futures … Continued

Squeeze Fuel Is Accumulating In Tech – Only Question Is, Short Squeeze Now Or Later?

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Even as tech shorts have meaningfully increased their activity, Nasdaq 100 longs have tried to put foot down just under the 50-day. A takeout of the average can shift sentiment – duration notwithstanding. Tech bulls are trying hard to put … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 73.2k, up 44.1k. The 10-year treasury yield lost five basis points this week to 0.54 percent.  Five-month support at 0.57 percent has been breached.  … Continued

FINRA Margin Debt Up $105.4bn From March Low – Absolute Low Probably Not In Yet

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Between March and June, FINRA margin debt increased $105.4 billion, providing a nice tailwind for stocks.  As a percent of disposable personal income, margin debt dropped to 2.8 percent in April, down from 4.3 percent in January 2018.  Historically, peak-to-trough … Continued

Longs Waste Opportunity To Squeeze Shorts

Bulls just wasted a huge opportunity to squeeze non-commercial shorts in e-mini futures.  This is coming at a time when the Fed’s balance sheet is no longer growing at a breakneck pace, which stocks cherished earlier. Longs probably wasted a … Continued

Fundamental Issues Aside, Russel 2000 Breaks Out – As Long As Price Stays Above 1250s, Bulls Deserve Benefit Of Doubt

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On Monday, the Russell 2000 busted through 1250s.  This has been an important price point going back five years.  Despite lofty earnings expectations for both this year and next, this week’s action is a thumbs-up from markets.  As long as … Continued