Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 5, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 221.8k, down 61.9k. Last week, 2Q17 real GDP growth was revised higher to three percent – much better than the post-Great Recession average of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 29, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 283.7k, up 22.5k. Hurricane Harvey may have given the Fed an excuse not to hike come December. At least that is how markets are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 22, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 261.2k, up 60.7k. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in 40 percent odds of a 25-basis-point increase in December, while September and November are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued
Last week’s mini sell-off in U.S. equities did not materialize all of a sudden. This was building for a while. The Russell 2000 small-cap index in particular peaked as early as July 25. Investors/traders in general gravitate toward small-caps when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.8k, up 19k. In the past several months, several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have expressed concern over persistently rising stock-market valuations. Using … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 210.9k, down 69.8k. So far this year, there have been two rate hikes – and four altogether since the Fed started raising in December … Continued
The Russell 2000 small cap index is dangerously close to breaking down. On Wednesday, it violated a rising trend line from February last year – albeit only slightly. Of the four major indices, the Russell 2000 is the first to … Continued
Amidst 2Q17 earnings and elevated multiples, some signs of fatigue are showing up on major U.S. indices. As of last Thursday, 2Q17 operating earnings of S&P 500 companies were on course for $30.70. In the year-ago quarter, they were $25.70 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 280.7k, down 1.6k. After seven years of keeping the fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, the Fed began to hike in … Continued