The jobs market has meaningfully decelerated the last four months. In the futures market, traders are pricing in six cuts in the next 15 months. The major equity indices are sitting on tons of gains from the April lows; concurrently, … Continued
Friday’s better-than-expected jobs numbers lit a fire under risk-on assets, including small-caps. This gives large-cap bulls another opportunity to go after February’s record highs. May produced 139,000 non-farm jobs. This was better than expected on the surface, but the prior … Continued
After many attempts, the Russell 2000 won back 1800 last week. But it is too soon to declare a trend change. A bigger hurdle lies at 1900. The Fed is as determined as ever to cool inflation and hurt the … Continued
Inflation is all the focus right now – for the central bank, for stocks and for the average household. The Fed is tightening and wants to see consumer inflation make a dash toward its two percent target. There are incipient … Continued
Things are slowing down. From job creation to real GDP, there are signs of deceleration. CEOs are beginning to sound pessimistic. Often, this can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Amidst this comes the sell-side’s overly optimistic estimates for small-cap operating … Continued
In the early months of 2020, the Fed aggressively flooded the system with liquidity, meeting three times in March alone. That was the need of the hour. Now, it probably needs to act with a similar speed – only in … Continued
This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued
There were new highs all around last week. But after having rallied huge in the past month, major equity indices are not sending one uniform message. A reprieve is due, even as volatility is getting ready to perk up – … Continued
Last week, the VIX index and the S&P 500 moved together – a rare occurrence. At least near term, the former seems to be itching to move up and the latter down. Medium- to long-term, how tapering evolves, and its … Continued
Small-cap earnings are coming in better than expected. The economy continues to churn out strong numbers. But small-caps, which by nature have larger domestic exposure, continue to trade within a five-month range. Near term, potential lower volatility can help bulls … Continued