NYSE margin debt fell $11.9 billion month-over-month in February to $435.8 billion. This was the 10th month since the $507.2-billion peak last April. Margin debt has dropped 14 percent since that peak (Chart 1). For some historical perspective, in 2000 … Continued
U.S. households are flush with cash – if we look at their bank deposits. The question is, does this represent dry powder for stocks? Households’ currency and deposits including money market fund shares totaled $10.7 trillion in 4Q15, having increased … Continued
Last Friday, spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($41.62) produced what looked like a shooting star near its 200-day moving average ($42.77). Right above lied another layer of resistance at $43.50 going back to January 2015 (Chart 1). A shooting star … Continued
Major U.S. indices are struggling at major resistance. Here are the levels indices were aiming to take out: Dow Industrials, 17000-plus; S&P 500, 1990; Nasdaq 100, 4350; Dow Transports, 7700; and Russell 2000, 1080, among others. The Industrials sought to … Continued
NYSE margin debt continues to deflate. Right before the 2008/2009 bear market ended, margin debt shrunk to $173.3 billion in February 2009. It then gradually rose. The previous high of $381.4 billion in July 2007 was surpassed in April 2013 … Continued
NYSE margin debt dropped 2.5 percent month-over-month in December, to $461.2 billion. The S&P 500 declined 1.8 percent in the month. Regardless if margin debt followed stocks lower or it was the other way round, what matters is that momentum … Continued
U.S. stocks have gone 12 straight sessions without even a sliver of a bounce. About time for a reprieve? Between the December 29th intra-day high and January 15th low, the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials each lost 10.8 percent, the … Continued
For the second consecutive year, U.S. stocks are struggling to get traction in December. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 large cap index is down 0.9 percent. December last year was down 0.4 percent. In fact, before trading began last week, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
For a while IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, lagged other major U.S. indices. The ETF, as well as the Russell 2000 index are still below their respective August 17th highs, which preceded a five-day, 11-percent cliff dive (Chart 1). … Continued