Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 3, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 87.7k, down 76.8k. A total of 5.7 million and counting. That is the number of non-farm jobs needed to match the pre-pandemic high of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 6, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 25.6k, down 34.4k. On Tuesday, slicing through low-1.40s, the 10-year (1.36 percent) broke not one, two but triple support – four-month descending channel, 11-month … Continued
The 2Q earnings season begins in earnest next week. Ahead of this, major equity indices are at or near their highs. The revision trend was positive throughout the quarter. Investors heavily bought into this. Their post-earnings reaction will be telling. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 79.5k, up 20.9k. Minutes for the January 26-27 FOMC meeting – the first of eight scheduled meetings this year – will be out Wednesday. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 29, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 128.6k, up 46.4k. FOMC minutes for the September 15-16 meeting are due out Wednesday. Rates at that meeting were obviously left unchanged between zero … Continued
After four negative weeks, equity bulls should be happy with how things have panned out week-to-date but it is far from all-clear. The Nasdaq 100 reclaimed the 50-day, while the S&P 500 closed Tuesday right on it. Both broke through … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 15, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 14.8k, up 5.3k. The Fed Wednesday said rates will stay zero-bound through the end of 2023. The fed funds rate in March was lowered … Continued
Bears are putting foot down. On both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, bulls last week were unable to break through multi-year resistance, even as the Nasdaq 100 finished right on rising-channel support from March. All this followed massive gains … Continued
The same way investor fear was pervasive in March, greed is reflected in several metrics currently. Reversal risks are very high medium- to long-term. Near-term, how VIX behaves in the next several sessions will decide if sentiment gets ever frothier. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 72.3k, down 14.7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.73 percent) is itching to break out of a five-and-a-half-month rectangle between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. … Continued