Major US equity indices staged a massive reversal last Thursday, with more strength Friday. This probably bodes well for bulls near term. For this to translate into medium-term momentum, investors need to embrace risk-on. Real GDP growth has softened. Four … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued
Bulls’ mettle was tested this week. With two more sessions to go, they came up short. A bigger test lies ahead. Major US equity indices broke down this week. Bulls’ resolve was seriously tested on Tuesday and Wednesday – simply … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.3k, down 33.7k. On September 3, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.43 percent intraday, nine basis points from the record low 1.34 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from their respective highs. Daily momentum indicators are extended. Breakout retests are the path of least resistance. The FOMC meets this week. A 25-basis-point cut to a range of 175 to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday. In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.9k, up 68k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.55 percent) rallied four basis points this week, but not before setting a three-plus-year low of 1.43 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 309.9k, down 91.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.51 percent) could be setting up for a rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Wednesday’s intraday low … Continued
Once again, small-cap bulls defended two-year support on Russell 2000. Oversold momentum indicators are itching to move up. But there is no sign of full-on risk-on just yet. There is plenty of overhead resistance where bears are likely to get … Continued