The Russell 2000 closed Friday right at, or slightly past, crucial resistance. If bulls succeed in decisively take out this ceiling, risk-on sentiment can rise. Failure to do so can lead longs, who are sitting on handsome gains, to lock … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
Inventory burn likely weighs on growth in future quarters, casting doubt on the sell-side’s expectations for a pick-up in earnings growth momentum as the year progresses. This is a medium- to long-term issue. Near term, recapturing of 1600 on the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.8k, up 48.1k. After getting rejected at 2.61 percent Wednesday last week, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.51 percent) went after that level again this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 261.6k, up 37.3k. During the week, job openings painted a mixed picture. Non-farm job openings (JOLTS) for February dropped 538,000 month-over-month to 7.1 million. … Continued
Kudos to equity bulls for pulling off an impressive reversal off of late-December lows. Major indices have now rallied for over three months, pushing them into extended territory. Looking at VIX futures, a lot of the good news is in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
On the eve of 1Q19 earnings season, the Russell 2000 sits right underneath short-term trend-line resistance. After this lies crucial 14-month horizontal ceiling. How non-commercials position themselves this week could leave clues as to how the index might fare in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued