Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 31, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 29.8k, up 143.1k. Twice in August, the 10-year treasury yield retreated after ticking 1.38 percent. This was just before testing broken-support-turned-resistance at low-1.40s. Back … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 24, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 113.3k, down 31.9k. It turned out to be quite an anticlimax – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s virtual speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, … Continued
Major US equity indices were down last week, but recovered from the lows, as dips were bought at important support. Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole this week is important in that a possible announcement of tapering of bond … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 17, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 145.2k, up 36.4k. Next week is the annual Jackson Hole symposium, where Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, will speak on “the economic outlook.” It … Continued
The S&P 500 is probably headed for a test of the 50-day, which is merely 1.5 percent away. Should the average be breached, it will have come at a seasonally tough period and at a time when earnings look very … Continued
VIX recently broke a month-and-a-half rising trend line, subsequently coming under more pressure. In the right circumstances for volatility bears, the index could drop more near term, but a longer-term trend line support is unlikely to break. On June 29, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 10, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 108.8k, up 21.1k. FOMC minutes for the July 27-28 meeting are due out on Wednesday. In that meeting, it was stated that progress has … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 3, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 87.7k, down 76.8k. A total of 5.7 million and counting. That is the number of non-farm jobs needed to match the pre-pandemic high of … Continued
Equal-Weighted Indexes pertaining to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out, although not decisively. Their market cap-weighted cousins could soon follow them. Should that happen, it is important to consider the vigor with which that happens. Equal-weighted indexes … Continued
S&P 500 earnings are beating consensus estimates by a wide margin. Stocks, which had rallied massively into the season, are only trudging higher. Near term, they are likely to struggle to find positive catalysts. The 50-day, which is merely 2.5 … Continued