By now, this is no news. Supply bottlenecks have surged in recent months. In the meantime, the Transports are struggling to match the performance of the S&P 500. If past is prelude, it is healthy when they move in tandem. … Continued
After massive rallies since the lows of March, major US stock indices saw sellers show up later last week at/near important resistance. Some indicators made a quick switch from fear to greed. This is coming at a time when the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 49.4k, up 15.3k. In the week ended February 11th, non-commercials held 398,919 net shorts in 10-year note futures. On the 12th that month, the … Continued
The buyback bonanza that persisted for years is coming to an end this year. It only makes sense that SPYB will lag SPY, but the ratio between the two broke out of one-month consolidation on Wednesday. This shows that, after … Continued
The top five stocks report this week. They have rallied massively since March lows. Investor reaction to their earnings will determine if major cap-weighted indices continue their five-week upward momentum or hit the wall. This week, the big five report. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 34.1k, down 36.7k. The FOMC meets next week. A two-day meeting begins Tuesday. This comes after March’s hectic schedule which included two unscheduled meetings. … Continued
Major equity indices hit the wall this week, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq losing a rising trend line from the March 23rd low. They rallied massively off of that low, and odds favor continued unwinding of daily … Continued
Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps. If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 70.8k, up 9.8k. The Fed is on a mission to provide a backstop to a whole host of assets. Here is its report card … Continued
Foreigners purchased more U.S. stocks in February. On the 19th that month, the S&P 500 peaked, before unraveling in March. How foreigners behaved in March therefore will be a tell. Should they turn defensive, this will have come at a … Continued