Last week, all major US equity indices lost north of 10 percent and were down a lot more at session lows Friday. If there is any consolation in this, amidst the carnage, bulls stepped up to defend important support. Some … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
Margin debt has diverged from US stocks – or not. It depends if margin debt is pitted against large- or small-caps. The former shows divergence, the latter not. Historically, FINRA margin debt tends to move hand in hand with US … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 306.3k, down 92.7k. Once again, bond bears (on price) were having to defend 1.51 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield (1.47 percent). Most recently, … Continued
Foreigners, who had been cutting exposure for a while, have been warming up to U.S. stocks of late. Bulls obviously would like this to continue. Historically, foreigners’ activity and the S&P 500 have shown a tendency to move in tandem. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 398.9k, up 40k. The Fed for all intents and purposes has been preparing the markets for more liquidity to come. Since late September last … Continued
RVX is clinging on to support. A breakdown may help small-cap bulls near term, as the Russell 2000 itself is at/near resistance. That said, a ratio between the index and the S&P 500 just made a multi-year low. RVX, which … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.9k, up 88.5k. One more week of additional liquidity from the Fed! In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went … Continued
Bulls put foot down. Bears had an opening but were unable to make much out of it. Another opportunity to take on the snorting bulls may be just around the corner. Since the S&P 500 large cap index (3297.59) peaked … Continued
Up 3.3 percent at one time, the S&P 500 ended January down 0.2 percent. ‘As January goes, so goes the year’ adage is not fail-safe but worth paying attention to. Not the least because the index rallied nearly 29 percent … Continued