U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday. Those lows have now taken on significance. Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued
Risk happens fast. All of a sudden, no one is buying the dip. Rather, the quest for protection has skyrocketed. In mere six sessions, VIX went from 11.08 to 38.80, closing Monday at 37.32. This was the highest since August … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 215.6k, up 97.7k. Last week, the futures-market odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the March (20-21) meeting in the fed funds rate stood at … Continued
U.S. equity bulls supposedly got the green signal from the January effect, which postulates that as goes January so goes the year. The S&P 500 large cap index was up a strong 5.6 percent in the first month of the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.9k, up 28.6k. Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s first, and will be Janet Yellen’s, the outgoing chair, last. (The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.3k, down 107.6k. A Bloomberg article last week about China beginning to weigh slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasurys gave the bond market … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one? The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued
A P/E of 17x on the S&P 500 large cap index cannot be called euphoric. A little above average, sure, but not euphoric. On forward operating earnings using next year’s estimates, that is what the index is currently trading at. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on. Doves versus hawks. At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 83.7k, up 39.4k. No one said a breakout of this significance would be easy. Last week, 10-year yields closed right underneath a three-decade-old descending … Continued