Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued
Stocks continue to trudge higher. Volume is low and action listless. But price tells us otherwise. Amidst this, some divergences are showing up, and they are worth paying attention. Equity bulls deserve kudos. Since the October-December decline last year, they … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 393.8k, up 100.6k. Next week – on 18-19 – the FOMC meets. This is the last meeting this year. A 25-basis-point raise is expected, … Continued
After a decent rally in equities last week, this week has on the docket several potentially market-moving events – from FOMC meeting to mid-term elections to China trade. Longs can think of selling some covered calls. Last week, two separate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 502.8k, down 41.2k. The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade in a no-man’s land. Sort of. On October 5, it began retreating after touching … Continued
VIX continues to struggle to take out its high from 13 sessions ago, even as major equity indices dropped to fresh lows yesterday. Non-commercials in the meantime are actively covering their net shorts. At least near term, there is room … Continued
The ongoing selloff in equities has been quick and painful – similar to what transpired in February this year. Back then, once stocks bottomed, they proceeded to rally strongly. Will the current selloff evolve the same way? Too early to … Continued
US stocks took it on the chin last week. Large-caps held up better, but risk aversion was seen elsewhere. The Dow Industrials was essentially unchanged, and the S&P 500 large cap index lost one percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.2k, down 16.1k. Kudos to non-commercials for having doggedly remained bearish on 10-year Treasury notes. They reaped a bumper crop this week. In September … Continued
The 3Q18 earnings season begins in earnest next week. Small-caps have sold off big into this (more on this here), but not large-caps. The Dow Industrials Wednesday rose to a fresh high, although the session produced a candle with a … Continued