Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 749.1k, up 8.9k. The Federal Reserve’s job is not getting any easier. On Wednesday, post-FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell dropped hints that they were … Continued
Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, up 41k. Non-commercials added another 41,004 contracts to their already-elevated holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. The 680,081 count is the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 639k, up 18k. The 10-year treasury yield (3.52 percent) dropped from 4.33 percent last October to the low six sessions ago of 3.25 percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 621k, up 149.5k. The FOMC minutes for the March 21-22 meeting come out on Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.6k, down 99.5k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year-note futures by nearly 100,000 contracts this week, to 471,578. In the week to February 28, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2023 (data is now current, with publication this week of two weeks’ worth of data). 10-year note: Currently net short 571k, up 63.7k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his … Continued
If the overnight strength in the futures market sticks and Tuesday’s CPI report cooperates, there is room for continued rally in stocks. Some indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day are way suppressed, although the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 545.1k, up 133.7k. The 10-year treasury yield sits at a crucial juncture. It ended this week at 3.48 percent. Around 3.4 percent lies important … Continued