How equity traders are likely to position themselves for at least the next week or so will depend on how they answer the question above. As the accompanying chart shows, going back at least two and a half years, a … Continued
The Chicago Board Options Exchange has been publishing values for the CBOE S&P 500 Skew Index since February 2011. The index seeks to measure the perceived risk of extreme negative moves in U.S. equity markets – the so-called tail risk. … Continued
Enough ink has been spilled on how in recent months major indices – and sectors/industries within them – have been diverging from each other. For two and a half months beginning late February/early March, previously risk-on favorites such as solar, … Continued
Short interest continues to inch up. By June-end, Nasdaq’s went up 0.6 percent period-over-period to 8.9bn – highest since end-September 2008 – and NYSE’s edged up 0.7 percent p/p to 14.6bn. What is going on in the Naz in particular … Continued
For the last five years, the S&P 500 index has bounced up and down within a channel. Technicals have been in gross overbought territory for a while now. The last time the index had a 10-percent correction was two years … Continued
There are some interesting things happening in e-mini S&P 500 futures. First, non-commercials are now net short 121k contracts, nearly double from two weeks ago. In the intervening period, the S&P 500 index has managed to inch up, having backed … Continued
The S&P 500 acts well. Since it found support at its 150-day moving average early February, it has appreciated 12 percent – that is in four months. In the process, it now has carved out support levels at 1900, 1885 … Continued
Breakouts are galore in U.S. equities. Of the three major indices, the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials have managed to push into record territory. The Nasdaq is a laggard – yet to get past early-March highs. Ditto with the … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders’ bet in recent weeks on a declining VIX was spot-on. Toward the middle of March, these large speculators were net short a mere 1k contracts. VIX (spot) was around 15 at the time. Technically, there was room … Continued
Unlike in the past when equities have shown a strong correlation with each other, increasingly they are marching to the tunes of different drummers. Consider the DJI. It has flat-lined for five months now, and it feels like it is … Continued