S&P 500 Caught Between Squeeze Fuel Running Dry And Imminent Golden Cross

With five sessions to go in April, the Nasdaq 100 index (4474.19) is down 0.2 percent, while the Russell 2000 small cap index (1146.69) is up 2.9 percent.  Last week made a big difference, as the former was down 1.5 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 19, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: That this is even being discussed in the press and among economists is a sign of how insane things have gotten in central … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 12, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Glass half full or half empty? Yet again, the IMF issued a downward revision to its prediction for global GDP growth, cutting 2016 … Continued

Stocks, Facing Several Headwinds, Vulnerable Near Term

U.S. stocks look vulnerable here.  The only question is that of duration and magnitude. Here is why. Off the February 11th intra-day low through the April 1st high, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied nearly 15 percent (Chart 1). … Continued

Momentum Continues In U.S. Equities, With VIX:VXV Continuing To Flash Caution

Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January.  From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued

Stocks Defy Expectations Last Five Weeks – VIX:VXV Flash Warning Signal

Last Friday, spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($41.62) produced what looked like a shooting star near its 200-day moving average ($42.77).  Right above lied another layer of resistance at $43.50 going back to January 2015 (Chart 1). A shooting star … Continued

U.S. Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance ↓ – At Least Near Term

Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since.  With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 9, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On June 5, 2014, the ECB cut the deposit rate for the euro zone’s commercial banks to minus 0.1 percent from zero.  It … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 5, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The World Bank, warning of an increase in risks to the global economy, expects growth this year to come in at 2.9 percent, … Continued