Several asset classes are at crucial juncture. Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate crude rallied to $51.88 before closing at $51.15, up 0.2 percent (Chart 1). The session produced a long-legged doji, took out now-slightly-declining 50-day moving average intraday but closed the … Continued
Earnings season is upon us. Operating earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise from $23.97 in 1Q16 to $29.14 in 1Q17 – an increase of 21.6 percent. This followed a 21-percent year-over-year rise in 4Q16 – from $23.06 … Continued
Down 5.6 percent from intraday peak to trough in 19 sessions, and then up 4.1 percent from low to high in five. The Russell 2000 small cap index continues to play ping pong between range support and resistance. Last Friday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 69.4k, down 30.9k. Fed officials are beginning to jawbone – again. Tuesday, Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, said he forecasts two more hikes this year. … Continued
After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias. In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher. Are they right? Since … Continued
Determined not to let go of nearly four-month support, small-cap bulls once again stepped up to the plate Monday. From down 1.4 percent intraday to close the session up 0.2 percent, the Russell 2000 small cap index initially got pushed … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the March 1-15 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq – p/p, short interest ↑ 0.5%, Nasdaq composite ↑ 1.3% … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued
After weeks of staying subdued, there was some spring in volatility’s feet this week. Will it last or peter out as has been the case for the umpteenth time post-election? Tuesday’s 10-percent rally in spot VIX (12.81) was the largest … Continued
Did U.S. small-caps lead or lag in the past four months? Depends on the timeframe. Post-November 8 election through the March 1 all-time high, the Russell 2000 small cap index rallied 18.4 percent. Year-to-date through that record high, it tacked … Continued