Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 17 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield had been trending down within a channel since it peaked on December 30, 2013 at three percent.  Early this year, … Continued

Introducing Hedgopia Risk Reward Index, and it is telling us risk is rising

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equities are choppy.  The S&P 500 large cap index (2099.68) is essentially flat for the week.  Participation is thin.  Volume is anemic.  Fresh on the heels of last week’s breakouts, indices are trying to build on those gains.  But conviction … Continued

Homebuilder stocks betting new households will start owning more than renting

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. household formation surges 1.8mn in four months to December Homebuilder sentiment drops to four-month low in Dec, but stays elevated ITB priced for reversal in years-long trend of renting versus owning – not a base case There are good … Continued

Breakouts deserve respect, successful test will validate move

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Amidst deteriorating U.S. earnings picture and geopolitical uncertainty, stocks resilient Major indices break out, but how much buying power did bulls expend? Breakouts deserve respect, unless they are proven false Are U.S. equities trying to tell us something? Almost out … Continued

Can bulls continue to climb wall of elevated short interest worry?

posted in: Equities | 0

Bull markets need fuel for continued push higher. Money can leave other asset classes, such as bonds, and into stocks.  Or, they can come out of, let us say, money-market funds into stocks.  Foreigners can raise net purchases of U.S. … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 10 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield tacked on another seven basis points for the week.  Daily indicators are now grossly overbought.  It is also right at … Continued

XLY, RTH break out — will consumers splurge gas windfall?

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Retail sales soft in Jan – first back-to-back m/m drop since mid-12 Consumers not quite ready to do away with savings from low gas price XLY, RTH break out, betting consumers will end up spending gas windfall U.S. retail sales … Continued

Did NFIB just pour cold water on NFP wages enthusiasm?

posted in: Economy | 0

Jan pickup in U.S. average hourly wages after Dec drop welcome relief Nevertheless, NFIB members’ comp plans tumble big time in January Loss of high-paying oil jobs will put downward pressure on wages One of the reasons January’s employment report … Continued

Has margin debt peaked? Can have repercussions for stocks, C&I loans

posted in: Credit, Equities | 0

Sideways movement in margin debt a sign investors’ risk appetite waning? 35-year correlation between stocks and margin debt of 0.95, 2014 was only 0.28 In 2000 and 2007, peak in margin debt preceded peak in C&I loans by one-plus year … Continued