US stocks are trying to stabilize after a decent drawdown. How things evolve will depend a lot on how margin debt, money-market fund assets and foreigners’ purchases evolve in the weeks/months to come. After a seven-session, 7.8-percent decline intraday between … Continued
After a rough two-week selloff, major US equity indices last week saw both bulls and bears try to put their foot down. The former put up a good show early in the week but the latter grabbed the first opportunity … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 616k, down 6.5k. Three weeks ago, non-commercials were net short 756,316 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures – a record. They have since reduced … Continued
US stocks had a good August. The S&P 500 large cap index jumped three percent in that month to 2901.52. Foreigners did not lend a helping hand. Net purchases of US equities by foreigners were minus $16.9 billion in August. … Continued
On a 12-month rolling total basis, federal deficit in August shot up to just under $900 billion. This at a time when the US economy is in expansion. In all probability, the red ink only gets worse from here. The … Continued
What a week! Stocks really took it on the chin last week, but by Friday there was some semblance of stability. Several indicators are in deep oversold territory. At least a reflex rally is due. During the carnage over the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 622.4k, down 117.8k. Back in July 2016, the 10-year Treasury rate (3.14 percent) bottomed at 1.34 percent. Since then, it has made higher lows. … Continued
The 10-year Treasury rate has broken out. In less than two months, it has jumped 44 basis points. Equities are selling off. But how sustainable is the rise in these yields, given the leverage in the system? Chart 1 is … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the September 17-28 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (55.70) fell out of a slightly rising ascending channel last week. This preceded rejection … Continued
US stocks took it on the chin last week. Large-caps held up better, but risk aversion was seen elsewhere. The Dow Industrials was essentially unchanged, and the S&P 500 large cap index lost one percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index … Continued