The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to New Year’s Day last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: ‘Will it or wouldn’t it?’ was … Continued
Oil bulls can take heart. Maybe. Spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($37.07/barrel) is likely on the verge of a 10/20 (daily moving average) crossover. The crude has more or less been going sideways/slightly up the past couple of weeks, and … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Christmas last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) … Continued
One look at the red line in Chart 1, and it is easy to see what crude oil has been through in the past year and a half. Intra-day, off the June 2014 high through last week’s sub-$35/barrel low, spot … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Call it ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’, the Fed finally followed through on its first hike in nine years. The fed funds rate stayed zero-bound … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Until Thursday, the two-year Treasury note yielded 0.95 percent, near recent highs of 0.96 percent. Come Friday, it dropped seven basis points, to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
In the past year and a half, crude oil has gone through a lot. It is not often a commodity of oil’s significance drops 61 percent in nine months. Yet that is what happened to spot West Texas Intermediate crude … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued
Hindsight is always 20/20. The post last Monday hypothetically discussed three ways to play beaten-down GLD, the SPDR Gold ETF: (1) go long at $103.09; (2) short November 27th 102.50 puts for $0.49, which could result in effectively going long … Continued