CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials contained in the Commitment of Traders report as of August 18, 2015.  Change is week-over-week.  (Please note that these holdings are as of Tuesday.  The S&P 500 swooned six percent in the next … Continued

JNK Relief Rally Possible Short-Term, But More Pain Probably Lies Ahead Medium- To Long-Term

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

One look at Chart 1, and it is hard to notice a significant change in momentum behind the U.S. high-yield debt market.  Through July, issuance totaled $188.4 billion.  Annualized, 2015 is on track to issuing north of $300 billion – … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 11, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: How might the renminbi devaluation impact the Fed’s desire to hike rates this year?  The devaluation is at least disinflationary as far U.S. … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued

How Oil Behaves Can Impact Demand — Or Lack Thereof — For Treasuries

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Economy | 0

One look at Chart 1, and it is not hard to imagine the possible repercussions of the collapse in crude oil.  The spot West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $107.68 in June last year, dropped to $42.41 in March, rose … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 28, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of attention: “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target … Continued

Beat Up And Down In The Dumps, Gold Pulls Off Reversal Last Friday

posted in: Commodities, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

Another down week for gold – fifth in a row!  Last Friday’s action in the meantime points to potential relief ahead – at least near-term. At one point when the metal made a weekly low on Friday, it was down … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 21, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Is global growth slowing?  The ongoing slump in commodities seems to suggest that.  In this scenario, it would make sense for investors to … Continued

Soaring U.S. Corporate Bond Issuance — The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. corporate bond issuance is on track for yet another record year this year. In the first half, issuance totaled $877.7 billion, comprised of $697.8 billion in investment-grade and $179.9 billion in high-yield.  Annualized, both categories, as well as the … Continued

Weekly Covered Call Post-GLD Breakdown

The yellow metal cannot catch a break. GLD, the SPDR Gold ETF, broke down last week, losing eight-month support at $110.  The corresponding support on spot gold lies around $1,140.  Friday, gold closed at $1,132.20 and GLD at $108.65. The … Continued