Two-year Treasury yields – supposedly the most sensitive to Fed policy – are acting as if they are beginning to price in a December hike. On October 14th, the two-year Treasury bill yielded 0.57 percent; by November 6th, the yield … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 10, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday.) 10-year note: “Muted global economic growth will not support a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 3, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three prominent Fed officials tried to convince the markets this week that December was in play in earnest. Testifying before the House Financial … Continued
“The assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.” The above is from the October 28th FOMC statement … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 27, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Once again, the Fed took a pass. Its decision this week not to raise interest rates was expected. What was not expected was … Continued
The energizer bunny marches on. The U.S. consumer, that is. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent. This was the first estimate, so it probably gets revised up or down by the time we have … Continued
Are U.S. homebuilders getting too aggressive? Makes you wonder. This month, the National Association of Home Builders housing market index rose three points to 64, to a 10-year high. There have been times in the past when builder sentiment ran … Continued
The advance report on durable goods for September was reported this morning, and the disappointing trend continued. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – a proxy for business capital expenditures – were $68.6 billion, down 0.3 percent month-over-month and down … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 20, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At the press conference following the ECB meeting on Thursday, when asked by a WSJ reporter as to why the bank is fighting … Continued
Back in early August, China engineered a fall in the yuan. Soon followed investor hand-wringing over whether or not it would be selling its Treasury holdings in order to stabilize the currency. The Chinese economy is slowing, and capital outflows … Continued