It can potentially be a momentous day. December 16th, that is. That is when the Fed would be completing its two-day FOMC meeting – this year’s last – and decide whether or not to raise interest rates. The last time … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hawks are in, doves are out. At least that is how markets are beginning to bet on the odds of an interest-rate hike … Continued
The FOMC minutes for the October 27-28 meeting released the day before have been perceived by the markets as a definite signal that the Fed is ready to move in December. The FOMC meets on December 14-15. Post-release of the … Continued
Two-year Treasury yields – supposedly the most sensitive to Fed policy – are acting as if they are beginning to price in a December hike. On October 14th, the two-year Treasury bill yielded 0.57 percent; by November 6th, the yield … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 10, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday.) 10-year note: “Muted global economic growth will not support a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 3, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three prominent Fed officials tried to convince the markets this week that December was in play in earnest. Testifying before the House Financial … Continued
“The assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.” The above is from the October 28th FOMC statement … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 27, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Once again, the Fed took a pass. Its decision this week not to raise interest rates was expected. What was not expected was … Continued
The energizer bunny marches on. The U.S. consumer, that is. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent. This was the first estimate, so it probably gets revised up or down by the time we have … Continued