Technically strong dollar bumping against two-decade-long resistance Trend-following hedge funds’ net longs in dollar index futures highest ever To watch out for: rise in odds of no rate hikes in U.S. and ECB QE disappointment Not a single day goes … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 6th (Tuesday). Dollar and ten-year notes jump out the most. 10-year note: Substantial net shorts have been built up. In the prior week, large speculators were most short since mid-May … Continued
Draghi drops credible (?) hints Eurozone QE is coming QE no panacea for economy, only a vehicle for transfer of bond ownership Investor reaction post-announcement key, as net shorts in euro futures remain very high “This may imply adjusting the … Continued
On Monday while discussing the dynamics between the dollar and U.S. trade/current account balances, one of the charts did not use the latest data. Due to the holiday last week, the CFTC reported this week futures positions ended the 23rd … Continued
Balance sheets have diverged between Fed and ECB As eurozone economy/inflation fall short, ECB under pressure to do QE If there is no QE from ECB, euro probably has a lot of catching up to do on the upside There … Continued
Ahead of ECB meeting, euro misery continues Draghi under pressure to deliver news of more stimulus Large speculators look tentative and sitting on massive net shorts When early October, FXE, the euro ETF, was unable to hold on to 126-127, … Continued
My essay was featured in this week’s Evergreen Virtual Advisor of Evergreen Gavekal (@EvergreenGK). The theme is the amount of divergences and disconnects out there and what it could mean for the markets. EVA+11.28.2014
Gold continues to show improved price/volume action Not-so-good news on Swiss vote probably overcome by Dutch repatriation news Trend-following hedge funds added to net longs in gold futures, by both raising longs and cutting shorts As suggested a week ago … Continued
Amidst relentless rally, excessively bullish dollar sentiment R between U.S. exports and dollar weak, but continual strength can hurt exports Previously, recession has tagged along with persistent drop in ‘share of U.S. exports in nominal GDP’ Since it bottomed early … Continued
James Bullard’s recent dovish comments fail to ignite interest in gold Possibility of triple-bottom reversal, but needs confirmation With recent thrust waning, near-term bias is down Since its peak in September 2011 at $1,924/ounce, gold has been trapped in a … Continued