The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 10, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday.) 10-year note: “Muted global economic growth will not support a … Continued
Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve vice chair, last week stated that U.S. inflation should rebound next year. As things stand now, government data do not show much inflation. In September, consumer prices, measured by the consumer price index, were unchanged in … Continued
Last week when October’s jobs report was published, there was one particular data point that really jumped out. The average hourly earnings of private-sector employees jumped 2.5 percent year-over-year, to $25.20 (Chart 1). This was the fastest rate employee earnings … Continued
The price to sales ratio is an important valuation tool that many investors swear by. The market cap to GDP ratio – essentially a ratio of price to sales – supposedly is a favorite indicator of Warren Buffet. On this … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 3, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three prominent Fed officials tried to convince the markets this week that December was in play in earnest. Testifying before the House Financial … Continued
The importance of consumers in the U.S. economy cannot be stressed enough. Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) accounted for 68.6 percent of gross domestic product in the third quarter. Five decades ago, PCE’s share was nine points lower. Put another … Continued
At the start of the year, real GDP in the U.S. was expected to grow at three percent or better this year. Actual numbers are falling short – substantially. In the first three quarters, growth has been on a sub-two-percent … Continued
“The assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.” The above is from the October 28th FOMC statement … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 27, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Once again, the Fed took a pass. Its decision this week not to raise interest rates was expected. What was not expected was … Continued
The energizer bunny marches on. The U.S. consumer, that is. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent. This was the first estimate, so it probably gets revised up or down by the time we have … Continued